June 2017 – PolGeoNow Free Site Staging

June 24, 2017

Why Brexit Matters: 5 Things That Might Change When Britain Leaves the EU

By Bryn Jansson

Map of the European Union, including all member countries, official candidate countries, and potential candidate countries, as 2017 (colorblind accessible).

Map of current and future EU member countries

Brexit Process Finally Begins

The United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) began formal divorce negotiations in Brussels last Monday, June 19, starting a 21-month sprint to the March 2019 Brexit deadline. (“Brexit” is short for “British Exit” from the EU, since “Britain” is another name for the UK.)

UK voters’ surprise choice to leave the EU happened exactly a year ago, on June 23, 2016 – but it didn’t automatically trigger the two-year countdown clock on exit negotiations necessary for departure under Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty.

In fact, the referendum didn’t actually do anything, except signal to the British government that its voters wanted to leave. While all leading politicians promised to respect the results, the official process couldn’t start until the UK delivered formal notice to the EU. Theresa May, the UK prime minister who replaced David Cameron last July, wanted to make sure the British government had its priorities and negotiating positions in order before delivering the notice. After many months, she finally did that on March 29, 2017.

How Brexit Affects the UK

Now it’s time for the UK and the rest of the EU to negotiate the details of the divorce. But the UK already wasn’t part of the EU’s free-travel Schengen Area, or part of the shared-currency Eurozone. So what will actually change when the country quits?

“Hard Brexit” vs. “Soft Brexit”

Most details of the UK’s break from the EU are still unknown, but the many possibilities can be divided into two general categories: A “Soft Brexit” would allow the UK to keep some of its special economic ties to the EU, and maybe even the Single Market arrangement that lets goods, money, services, and labor move freely between member countries (the so-called “four freedoms”).

“Hard Brexit”, on the other hand, would mean a clean break from the Single Market, requiring the UK and the EU to negotiate their economic relationship from scratch. The EU insists on including the “four freedoms” as a package deal, so if the UK doesn’t want one of them, it’ll have to give up access to all of them. EU leaders fear that letting the UK pick and choose the best parts of membership might encourage other countries to do the same.

Some non-EU member countries, like Norway and Switzerland, do have partial membership in the Single Market; they generally still have to accept the “four freedoms”, but are allowed exceptions from certain market-wide regulations. They also were never in the EU to begin with, so they were able to negotiate from a stronger position.

Most of the potential changes involve the EU’s “Single Market”, a system that allows goods, money, services, and labor (people) to move around inside the EU as if it was all one country. (Because the UK isn’t part of Schengen, it’s allowed to do border checks and set its own visa policies for non-Europeans; but the Single Market guarantees that citizens of other EU countries can still move to the UK and work there.)

Here are five of the biggest areas where things might change when the Brexit is complete:

The Issue: Immigration

Why It Matters: Immigration was one of the driving issues behind the Leave campaign’s success in the Brexit vote last year. Then-Prime Minister David Cameron had promised to drastically reduce migration; but as long as EU law required free movement of labor for EU citizens in and out of Britain, his hands were pretty much tied.

Brexit supporters ran on a platform of regaining control over the country’s borders, promising to limit immigration to much smaller rates than British people are used to now. Since the immigration issue was one of the most visible of the campaign, it’ll be a big deal in the news during negotiations.

What Might Happen: Current Prime Minister Theresa May has consistently said Brexit must mean full control of the UK’s borders and the flow of people coming into the country. While politicians aren’t known for keeping their promises, this is one she’s been clear on for so long that it would be hard for her to break it.

In an April interview, however, May expressed openness to an “implementation period” in which businesses and governments would have time to adjust to new policies. This could include an extension of the free movement of people – though May still insisted that border and immigration policy would be under British control during that period.

The Issue: The Border with Ireland

Why It Matters: One of the more difficult circles to square will be the fate of the border between Ireland (an independent country) and Northern Ireland (a part of the UK). Even though the UK isn’t part of the EU’s Schengen free travel area, it has a special agreement to keep the Irish border open to travelers, and the “four freedoms” of the EU Single Market let residents easily do business on either side.

From the 1960s to the 1990s, some 3,500 people in Northern Ireland were killed in a violent conflict over whether the region should join independent Ireland or stay in the UK. The Good Friday Agreement of 1998 led to a cease-fire that’s mostly held since, probably in part because the border is “irrelevant”. But that could all change after Brexit, when the boundary might come to divide the EU Single Market from a border-controlled UK. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of jobs are threatened if cross-border economic activities get cut off.

In last year’s Brexit referendum – where Irish citizens residing in the UK were allowed to vote alongside their British neighbors – Northern Ireland voted against leaving the EU, but with sharp differences from district to district.

Gibraltar and Brexit

Brexit negotiations will also decide the future of Gibraltar, a tiny UK-controlled peninsula attached to southern Spain. The territory, though not officially part of the UK, has been under British control since 1713, and some in Spain hope to use the negotiations as leverage to advance their own country’s claims to it.

The EU has promised Spain veto powers over any future trade deal involving Gibraltar, which would allow the Spanish government to “demand concessions or make the border with Gibraltar harder to cross, effectively isolating the territory.” Whether Spain will use its power that way is still unknown.

Meanwhile, the May government has insisted that British policy toward Gibraltar – which includes promises not to give the territory to Spain without its residents’ permission – will not change. (Gibraltarians voted overwhelmingly against Brexit last year, but are even more against joining Spain.)

What Might Happen: Former UK prime minister Tony Blair thinks a hard border with checkpoints and passport controls “really would be a disaster.” Fortunately, both sides have said they want to leave the border as open as possible: May has promised work for a practical solution allowing free travel between Ireland and Northern Ireland while still “protecting the integrity of the UK’s immigration system”, and the EU negotiating guidelines call for a “flexible and creative” approach. Some have suggested this could mean an open border in Ireland, with a “hard border” separating Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.

However it turns out, you can bet PolGeoNow will be covering these developments!

The Issue: Citizens’ Rights

Why It Matters: Thanks to the free movement of people guaranteed by the EU, about 1.2 million British nationals live in other EU states, and 3.2 million non-British EU citizens live in the UK. Many have lived there for decades. Until now, they’ve enjoyed access to most of the same rights and privileges as their local neighbors, but Britain’s exit from the EU opens that up to debate.

If no agreement is reached, EU citizens wishing to stay in the UK would have to deal with British immigration laws, which advocacy groups say are already some of the strictest in Europe. They could also lose access to other services they have now, like health care, social security, and pensions. The same thing could also happen to UK citizens living in other EU countries, like the half-million British expats who have relocated to sunnier Spain and France

What Might Happen: Both sides generally favor allowing existing residents to stay and retain access to services, though the details will take time to hammer out. The EU wants these rights guaranteed by the European Court of Justice (ECJ), but the UK government has been clear that the ECJ will not have any jurisdiction in Britain after Brexit. Another issue is what day citizens must arrive by to be eligible under the agreement: The day of the referendum? The day Article 50 was triggered? The day an agreement is ratified? We should find out soon, since both the EU and the UK have agreed citizens’ rights is one of the first topics on the agenda.

The Issue: “Passporting”

Why It Matters: Confusingly, “passporting” has nothing to do with what we usually think of as a passport: the identity document that gets stamped when you enter a new country. In this case, it’s actually an authorization that allows banks and other financial institutions in one EU country to do business in the any of the others. This is a specific part of the Single Market, but it’s especially important because London’s status as Europe’s unofficial “financial capital” means there’s a huge volume of cross-border financial business between the UK and the rest of the EU. One estimate indicates that if the UK lost all EU passporting rights, it could cost almost $25 billion in annual revenue. Another says London banks may have to move close to $2 trillion, or 17 percent of the UK banking system, to EU-based locations. Yet another claims that up to 80,000 jobs in the finance sector could leave London in the next two years as banks prepare for the worst.

UK Brexit vote map: Map of election results in Britain's June 2016 referendum on leaving the European Union (EU). Continuous red-to-blue color scheme gives a more honest depiction of the similarities between different election districts. Colorblind accessible.

Map of UK Brexit vote results

What Might Happen: Only EU-based firms are eligible for passports, so unless an exception is negotiated as part of Brexit, British banks will lose that right. It won’t stop them from conducting business elsewhere, but it does mean they have to apply for a license in each individual country. Ominously for the UK, new French president Emmanuel Macron is on the record saying British financial institutions shouldn’t get a special deal. Britain’s finance industry is already expecting to lose full passporting rights, but hopes a more limited deal could allow some important services to continue.

The Issue: Economic Access

Why It Matters: This really is the issue of the whole negotiation process; it’s woven into all the other topics discussed above. How close and what type of an economic relationship will the UK and the EU have after Brexit is finalized?

What Might Happen: Though anything is still technically possible at this point (staying in the Single Market, getting out, keeping other agreements, or temporarily staying in while a new relationship is finalized), May’s government has been fairly clear about its plans to pull the UK out of the Single Market and renegotiate its relationship with the EU from scratch.

But since her Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in June’s snap elections, there’s been a push to at least keep Britain in the EU’s customs union. A customs union is a less-ambitious version of the Single Market, where member countries have a shared policy on imports from non-members, and no taxes on importing or exporting between members. It doesn’t include free movement of people, or the unified rules of business that make free movement of labor and services practical in the EU.

Only time will tell how the recent electoral losses will affect May’s negotiating positions, but the decision on whether to allow free movement of people will be the linchpin. If the UK is willing to accept this, it can get the greater economic access that Northern Ireland and London’s financial sector want. But if full control over British borders is non-negotiable, the UK will get only partial access at best.

Following this story? View all Brexit articles on PolGeoNow!

June 22, 2017

Syrian Civil War Map & Timeline: Kurds Enter “Islamic State” Capital – June 2017

There are newer versions of this map available. To see them, view all Syria updates.

Map of Syrian Civil War (Syria control map): Fighting and territorial control in Syria in June 2017 (Free Syrian Army rebels, Kurdish YPG, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Jabhat Fateh al-Sham / Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Al-Nusra Front), Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL), and others). Includes Russia-Turkey-Iran agreed de-escalation zones and US deconfliction zone. Includes recent locations of conflict and territorial control changes, such as Raqqah, Maskanah, Arak, Tanf, Sabaa Biyar, Bir Qassab, and more. Colorblind accessible.

Base map by Koen Adams of onestopmap.com, with territorial control by Evan Centanni and Djordje Djukic.
All rights reserved.

(Subscribers click here to view this article in the member area.)

Timeline by Djordje Djukic

Syria: Where Things Stand Now

In the four weeks since our previous Syrian Civil War map report, the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have advanced all the way into Raqqah, capital city of the so-called “Islamic State” (IS; formerly ISIS/ISIL). Meanwhile, Syrian government forces have also been pushing hard against IS, nearing Raqqah themselves, while making even more major advances in the southern desert. Clashes between rebels and government forces have also continued across Syria’s south, even as the US enforces a rebel safe zone around its base in Tanf.

Political geography milestones in the last month include the Syrian government’s reestablishment of a border with Iraq (entirely controled IS, Kurdish forces, and rebels since 2015); Syrian rebels’ loss of their last border with IS, near Tanf; and the first time in a year that the government has controlled any of Raqqah province.

Flag of Syria under the current government

Country Name:
• Syria (English)
• Sūriyya/Sūryā (Arabic)
Official Name:
• Syrian Arab Republic (English)
• al-Jumhūriyyah al-‘Arabīyah as-Sūriyyah (Arabic)
Capital: Damascus

Note: Red triangles on the map represent towns where rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – formerly known as Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (a.k.a. the Nusra Front), and later Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS) – is thought to be in a dominant position among rebel forces, even if it doesn’t exercise exclusive control. This organization has some presence in almost every rebel-held area in Syria.

Timeline of Events
The following is a timeline of changes to territorial control and other key events in Syria since our previous map update of May 25, 2017. Sources are provided as in-line links.

May 26, 2017
The Syrian Army seized a village three kilometers west of IS-held Maskanah, between Aleppo and Raqqah.

May 27, 2017
Government forces captured 13 villages along the eastern bank of a lake in Aleppo province, coming within 1.5 kilometers of the western entrance to Maskanah. Meanwhile, the army captured a town south of Sawwana, in the southern desert.

May 28, 2017
The army captured a village on Maskanah’s northern flank.

May 29, 2017
The last batch of rebels and family members left the Barzeh neighborhood of Damascus, leaving it entirely under government control.

May 30, 2017
The army advanced against US-backed rebels southeast of Sawwana.

May 30-31, 2017
The Kurdish-led, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) advanced to within three kilometers of IS capital Raqqah, reaching the city’s northern entrance. The next day, the SDF besieged the town of Mansurah and one more village between Thawra and Raqqah, after capturing several nearby villages.

May 31, 2017
Rebels broke through pro-government militias’ first line of defense near a government-held junction in the Sabaa Biyar area (west of Tanf in the southern desert). However, the rebel advance on the junction was subsequently halted by Russian airstrikes. Meanwhile, the army launched an offensive towards IS-held Aqerabat east of Hama, reportedly capturing several villages.

June 2, 2017
The SDF launched an assault on the besieged IS-held town of Mansurah, just west of Raqqah, capturing it later in the day.

June 2-4, 2017
The Syrian Army seized over a dozen villages south and southwest of Maskanah, cutting off IS’s main supply route between Maskanah and Raqqah. The next day, Maskanah was surrounded, and on June 4 it was captured by government troops. The army also secured its own main supply route to and from Khanaser. These advances brought the army to Raqqah’s provincial border.

June 3, 2017
The army made advances against rebels north of Hama. This was followed by a rebel counterattack attempting to regain control of the lost positions. The army also made a push towards IS-held Arak and Suknah, in the southern desert near Palmyra, capturing several hilltops along the highway.

June 3-4, 2017
Government forces hit rebel-held parts of Daraa city with air and artillery strikes following a rebel attack on government positions in the city’s Manshiyah district. At least 31 fighters on both sides were killed in the fighting, with the fatalities divided nearly evenly between the two sides. Meanwhile, IS made advances against government forces near the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor, capturing a roundabout south of the city. Fighting continued for control of two hilltops near the southern city’s entrance.

June 4-5, 2017
The SDF seized a dam near Raqqah. The next day, it proceeded to capture six villages north and northwest of the city, tightening the siege of the IS capital. In all, over the previous week, the SDF had taken control of about 350 square kilometers from IS.

June 5-6, 2017
Government forces reportedly seized several positions east of Salamiya.

June 6, 2017
The US-led coalition conducted airstrikes against a force of 60 pro-government fighters who entered the US-declared “deconfliction zone” centered on the rebel-held town of Tanf, near the Iraqi and Jordanian borders. Two self-propelled howitzers and a self-propelled anti-aircraft gun were destroyed, while a tank was damaged. Pro-government sources reported two soldiers were killed, while other reports said between 10 and 32 government troops died in the attack. Despite the strikes, the pro-government forces remained in place within the zone.

Meanwhile, government forces took control of a hill in the eastern countryside of Damascus, near Dumayr. Elsewhere, government troops captured six villages on the provincial border of Aleppo and Raqqah while attempting to link up with the SDF near Thawra. Two of the villages were on Raqqah’s side of the boundary, marking the first time in a year that the Syrian Army had entered the province.

June 6-17, 2017
The SDF started its assault on the IS capital city of Raqqah. The US-backed forces attacked the al-Mashlab district on the city’s eastern edge, as well as a military base around one kilometer north of the city center. The next day, the SDF captured a village and the ruins of a more than 1,000-year-old fortress west of Raqqah, reaching the city’s western outskirts.

By June 13, the military base and four neighborhoods were captured by the SDF, including al-Mashlab, Romaniah, al-Sinaa and Hattin. Additionally, the SDF seized parts of the western Jazrah suburb and all or at least half of the western al-Sabahia district. In the first eleven days of the battle, 117 civilians were killed in US-led coalition airstrikes and SDF artillery shelling, while between 142 and 312 IS fighters, as well as at least 15 SDF fighters, also died.

June 7, 2017
In the southern desert, the army seized several hills around Arak, as well as reportedly an area 25 kilometers east of Sawwana. Meanwhile, the SDF captured a village west of Thawra.

June 8, 2017
The Syrian Army captured a hilltop from rebels southeast of Damascus, while the US-led coalition bombed government forces once again near the Iraqi border, destroying two technical fighting vehicles. The US also shot down a pro-government drone that was bombing rebel forces near Tanf. Meanwhile, the army advanced further southeast of Palmyra against IS, while IS withdrew from 20 villages west of Raqqah ahead of a government advance into the area. Elsewhere, government troops reportedly captured a town in the besieged rebel-held East Ghouta pocket, in the eastern suburbs of Damascus.

Iraq: Map of IS and Kurdish Control in June 2017

June 9, 2017
Pro-government forces reached the Iraqi border for the first time since 2015, after going around Tanf and positioning themselves around 70 kilometers northeast of the border crossing. The Syrian Army reportedly met the Iraqi Army on the border. Meanwhile, rebels counter-attacked in the area they had lost the previous day southeast of Damascus, and managed to advance. Elsewhere, pro-government forces captured an area southeast of Palmyra, reaching a strategic crossroad.

June 11, 2017
The army reached the outskirts of Arak and advanced towards Suknah, a remote desert town on the way from Palmyra to Deir ez-Zor. Meanwhile, Jordanian border guards shot and killed five people who were approaching the border from the Tanf area in Syria. The targeted people’s vehicles were also destroyed. The pro-Syrian government Al-Masdar News reported that the five dead were “Free Syrian Army” (FSA) rebels who were trying to avoid government forces. Elsewhere, rebel infighting erupted in the northern town of Al-Bab, leaving between 27 and 31 rebels dead or wounded.

June 12, 2017
The army advanced in Daraa city, capturing 25 to 50 percent of the rebel-held Daraa Refugee Camp neighborhood amid vicious fighting. Meanwhile, pro-government forces advanced to a second location along the border with Iraq.

June 13, 2017
The Syrian Army advanced against IS in the desert west of Raqqah, capturing nine villages and reaching the Ithriya-Thawra highway. This left government forces about 40 kilometers from besieging the remaining IS-held villages in the southeast of Aleppo province, as well as some in Raqqah province. The advance would relieve IS pressure on the government’s main supply route for Aleppo, which runs through Ithriya and Khanaser. Meanwhile, an army attack on the IS-held T3 airbase was repelled, but government forces still reportedly managed to advance in a nearby area.

Elsewhere, the SDF attacked and captured several mountain positions overlooking a rebel-held town on the provincial border of Idlib and Aleppo. A subsequent rebel counterattack regained all lost positions, but as the rebels advanced they were ambushed by the SDF, suffering heavy casualties. Some 36 rebels were killed in the fighting; it was initially reported that 19 SDF fighters had also died, but later reports confirmed that only one YPG fighter from the SDF was killed (the YPG is a Kurdish “self-defense” militia that makes up the biggest member force of the SDF).

June 14, 2017
The US deployed its HIMARS missile system near the southern town of Tanf.

June 14-15, 2017
East of Palmyra, the army captured Arak, including its oil fields, as well as the T3 airbase, advancing towards Suknah. The next day, its forces were within 25 kilometers of the town.

June 14-19, 2017
Southwest of Thawra, the Syrian Army seized an oil field, while the SDF captured several villages. Two days later, the army once again advanced, taking control of more villages and oil fields. On June 17, the army captured 14 villages and hills in the area, closing in on the IS stronghold of Resafa and its nearby road junction. Concurrently, the SDF seized two villages south of Raqqah.

The next day, the Syrian Army and the SDF were in a race to reach Resafa, with the SDF capturing a district north of the town, while the army managed to reach Resafa’s outskirts. The army alleged that the US-led coalition downed a Syrian fighter plane bombing IS positions near Resafa. According to the coalition, Syrian government forces attacked an SDF-held town south of Thawra, driving the SDF from the town, after which a coalition show of force stopped the initial government advance towards it. But later, the coalition said, a Syrian Air Force fighter jet dropped bombs near SDF fighters, after which it was shot down by the coalition.

In response to the downing of the Syrian jet, Russia announced that all aircraft from the US-led coalition would be “tracked…and treated as targets” any time they crossed west of the Euphrates River. The US military said it was repositioning its planes for safety, and Australia suspended air missions in Syria.

On June 19, Resafa was captured by the Syrian Army, while the SDF seized the closest village north of the town, about four kilometers away.

June 16-18, 2017
Government forces captured a hill east of Salamiya. Two days later, the army captured four villages north of Aqerabat.

June 17, 2017
A 48-hour ceasefire was declared by the army in southwestern Syria’s Daraa city.

June 18, 2017
Reportedly for the first time since 2015, the Syrian Army and Iraqi government forces met on the border of the two countries, following advances by Iraqi forces against IS. Meanwhile, the rebels captured about half of a town in the southern countryside of Hama province, but subsequently withdrew due to heavy airstrikes and artillery shelling.

June 19, 2017
The SDF captured the al-Baitara district of Raqqah city.

June 20, 2017
Following the conclusion of the ceasefire in Daraa, government forces resumed their attacks on rebel-held areas of the city, managing to push into some, as well as to advance in Daraa’s western outskirts. Their capture of a former air defence base there apparently split rebel territory in the region in two, but later in the day the rebels recaptured the base.

Elsewhere, the army attacked the rebel-held Bir Qassab area, about 75 kilometers southeast of Damascus, and captured it. The same day, the US-led coalition shot down a second Syrian government-affiliated drone that was just outside the Tanf “deconfliction zone”, but within firing range of the coalition base. Meanwhile, the SDF captured an area on the southern outskirts of Raqqah, coming close to fully surrounding the city.

June 21, 2017
Recently-elected French president Emmanuel Macron stated that he saw no legitimate successor to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and that France no longer considered his removal a pre-condition to resolving the conflict in Syria. According to him, the priority was “a complete fight against all the terrorist groups” and to ensure that Syria does not become a “failed state”. Meanwhile, the Syrian Army reportedly advanced against the rebels in two areas of Damascus’s eastern outskirts.

The same day, Turkey reportedly sent a large number of troops into Syria near Azaz to reinforce rebels in the area. Observers speculated that their purpose was to assist rebels in capturing the SDF-held town of Tell Rifaat. (Turkey considers the SDF’s leading YPG militia to be a branch of the Kurdish PKK rebel group that operates in Turkish territory.)

Graphic of the Syrian flag is in the public domain (source).

June 17, 2017

Iraq Control Map & Timeline – June 2017 (Subscription)

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Research by Djordje Djukic. Map by onestopmap.com, Evan Centanni, and Djordje Djukic

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In the past three months, Iraqi government forces have made slow but steady progress against the so-called “Islamic State” in the city of Mosul, while pro-government militias have pushed westward from the city all the way to the Syrian border.

See all this and more on the latest update to PolGeoNow’s concise, professional map of control in Iraq’s civil war, including a timeline of changes since our previous Iraq map report of March 2017.

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Up-to-date map of current territorial control in Iraq, color-coded for the Iraqi government, “Islamic State” (ISIS/ISIL) fighters, and Kurdistan’s Peshmerga forces. Colorblind accessible.
Detailed indication of town-by-town control, including all major cities and many smaller ones, as well as major roads and provincial boundaries
Markers for key areas of recent fighting such as Baaj, Al-Hadar, Qayrawan, and the Safouk and Jayar Ghalfas border crossings
Timeline of changes to the situation since mid-March, compiled by our Iraq-Syria specialist, with links to sources

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June 15, 2017

Panama Recognizes China, Stops Recognizing Taiwan (Map)

There are newer versions of this map available. You can always find the latest version, and a list of all related articles, on our Which Countries Recognize Taiwan? page.

Map of who recognizes Taiwan (what countries recognize the Republic of China) in June 2017. Marks countries that have cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan (withdrawn recognition) in the last ten years: Panama, Sao Tome and Principe, and the Gambia. Also answers question: Where is Republic of China located? (Colorblind accessible)

Click to enlarge. By Evan Centanni, modified from public domain blank world map.

Article by Evan Centanni

Taiwan Loses Recognition from Panama

Short Name (informal):
• Taiwan (English)
• ROC (English)
• Táiwān (Chinese)
Official Name (in constitution):
• Republic of China (English)
• Zhōnghuá Mínguó (Chinese)
Other names used officially:
• “Republic of China (Taiwan)” (government offices)
• Chinese Taipei (international sports)
• Taiwan, Province of China (used by UN without Taiwan’s permission)
Capital:
• Taipei (de facto)

The Central American country of Panama announced this Tuesday that it’s cutting diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Instead, it’s setting up official ties with Mainland China, endorsing the Chinese claim that Taiwan is part of China.

The island of Taiwan operates like an independent country today, but is governed under the constitution of the “Republic of China” (ROC), the government that ruled Mainland China before the communist revolution (the government that now rules the Mainland is called the People’s Republic of China).

Because the China-Taiwan dispute was originally over which side was the rightful government of China, and because the now-powerful Mainland government insists Taiwan can’t be a separate country, other countries have to choose to recognize just one or the other.

This is the first time Panama has ever recognized the People’s Republic of China, having maintained relations with the Republic of China ever since it was founded in 1912 (long before the ROC government moved to Taiwan).

Republic of China: Shrinking Recognition

Today, only 20 countries (about 10%) still have formal diplomatic relations with the Taiwan-based Republic of China government – the closest equivalent to “recognizing” Taiwan as a country. Before Panama cut ties this week, the last country to switch from Taiwan to China was São Tomé and Príncipe last December.

Only one country, the Gambia, abandoned Taiwan between 2008 and 2016, during a “diplomatic truce” initiated by Taiwan’s most Mainland-friendly president (even then, China waited until Taiwan elected a more independence-leaning president before restoring its own relations with the Gambia).

Graphic of the Republic of China (Taiwan) flag is in the public domain (source).

June 15, 2017

How Many Countries Are There in the World in 2017?

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This article, originally from 2011, has been revised and updated to June 2017.

A world political map published by the US government (public domain)

One of the most basic questions for map-lovers is, “How many countries are there in the world?” But anyone who replies with just a number is leaving out part of the story. It actually depends a lot on how you define a “country”.

Here are six of the most common answers, each correct in its own way:

195 Sovereign States According to the UN
“Country” and “nation” are casual words for what political scientists call a “sovereign state”, meaning a place with its own borders and completely independent government. The question of which places count as sovereign states can be controversial, but for starters we can count all the member and observer countries of the United Nations (UN):

UN Members: 193
UN Observer States: 2
Total: 195

These countries mostly all accept each other as sovereign states, and they’re the ones you’ll see on most world maps and many lists of the world’s countries. Almost every country you’ve ever heard of is probably a member of the UN, and the two UN Observer States are Vatican City (represented by the Holy See) and Palestine. If you want to know the names of all 195, Wikipedia has a complete list.

The last addition to the list was in 2012, when Palestine became a UN Observer State, and the last time the number of full UN members changed was when South Sudan joined in 2011.

Note: Palestine’s approval as a UN Observer State was controversial, so some lists may still only include 194 countries.

201 States With At Least Partial Recognition
Several more country candidates are left out of the UN itself, but are still officially acknowledged by at least one UN member (this kind of official acceptance is called “diplomatic recognition“). These controversial countries are usually labeled on world maps as disputed territories or special cases, if they’re on the map at all.

Kosovo is claimed by Serbia, but recognized as independent by over 100 countries.

UN Members: 193
UN Observer States: 2
States With Partial Recognition: 6
Total: 201

The six non-UN states with partial recognition are Taiwan, Western Sahara, Kosovo, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Northern Cyprus. All of these are claimed as parts of other countries, but aren’t actually controlled by them (at least not completely). The number of UN members recognizing them varies, from just one for Northern Cyprus to over 100 for Kosovo.

A few lists also include the Cook Islands and Niue as partially-recognized states. These two places sometimes act like independent countries, but they’ve never actually declared independence or tried to join the UN. They’re usually considered overseas territories of New Zealand

204-207 De Facto Sovereign States
But wait, there’s more! Those six partially recognized countries aren’t the only breakaway states with full self-governance. There are at least three more self-declared countries that aren’t recognized by any UN members at all, but still operate independently from the countries that claim them. These are often called “de facto” sovereign states, a fancy Latin way of saying they’re independent countries in actual fact, even if not on paper.

UN Members: 193
UN Observer States: 2
States With Partial Recognition: 6
Unrecognized de facto Sovereign States: 3 to 6 (see below)
Total: 204 to 207

The three places most often considered de facto independent countries are Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria, and Somaliland. And since 2014 there are three more contenders for the list: the so-called “Islamic State”, the Donetsk People’s Republic, and the Lugansk People’s Republic. But because those last three are located in active war zones and have only limited government structures, there’s some debate over whether they count even as de facto countries.

Tiny “micronations” declared by individual people usually aren’t taken seriously enough to put on the list. The closest contender would be Sealand, but it’s debatable whether this tiny “nation” really counts as having a territory, population, or government, all key ingredients for a sovereign state.

There are also many rebel-held territories (and fully self-governing areas like Puntland) that aren’t controlled by any country, but are left off the list because they don’t claim to be independent. They agree in principle that they’re part of another country, even though they might disagree about who should be in charge, or how the country should be governed.

206 Olympic Nations
Lots of people learn about the world’s list of countries by watching the Olympic Games every two years. If you’re one of them, you might be confused at why the Olympic Parade of Nations claims over 200 members, even though your atlas only has 195.

This is because the Olympics didn’t always require applicants to be independent countries. Dependent territories with partial self-government have sometimes been approved by the International Olympic Committee (IOC), and a couple of the partially-recognized states mentioned above have also managed it.

Olympic Nations that are UN Member States: 193
Olympic Nations that are UN Observer States: 1
Olympic Nations that are Partially-recognized States: 2
Olympic Nations that are Dependent Territories: 10
Total IOC-Recognized Olympic Nations: 206

World map showing the five continental associations of National Olympic Committees, including all nations eligible for the Olympic games

The Olympics include most of the world’s independent countries, and some dependent territories too.

About half of the dependent territories in the Olympics are overseas possessions of the US (like Puerto Rico) and of the UK (like Bermuda). Some nearly-independent “countries” like the Cook Islands (New Zealand) and Aruba (the Netherlands) are included too.

Every UN member country is also in the Olympics, with the latest addition, South Sudan, joining in August 2015. The one UN Observer State in the Olympics is Palestine; Vatican City apparently isn’t interested. As for the two partially-recognized countries in the games, Kosovo just became an Olympic Nation in 2014, and Taiwan has been a member for some time, but has to call itself “Chinese Taipei” after a deal struck with China in the 1980s.

Learn More: Parade of Nations: Which Countries Are (and Aren’t) in the Olympics

211 FIFA Countries Eligible for the World Cup
Soccer – or “football” as it’s known in many countries – is the world’s most popular sport, and most international matches all the way up to the World Cup are regulated by an organization called FIFA. If you’re a soccer super-fan, you might know that until recently there were 209 member countries that compete in FIFA matches (even though most don’t make it to the World Cup). That’s already more than the number of Olympic Nations, and definitely more than the total independent countries on most world maps.

Like the Olympics, FIFA didn’t always require independence or international recognition for its members. Now it’s a bit stricter, but any team that’s already a member is allowed to stay. And since May 2016, there are now two more FIFA members: Kosovo, a partially-recognized country that was voted in after being recognized by more than half of the UN’s members; and Gibraltar, an overseas territory of the UK that recently got a court order allowing it in without being independent.

Based on European tradition, FIFA also allows England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland to compete as separate teams, even though they’re all part of the UK.

World map marking dependent territories, partially recognized sovereign states, and subnational entities that have national football (soccer) teams recognized by FIFA, making them eligible for the World Cup.

Map from 2014 of FIFA members that aren’t recognized as independent countries by the UN

Teams of UN Member States: 186
Teams of UN Observer States: 1
Teams of Partially Recognized States: 2
Teams of UK Constituent Countries: 4
Teams of Dependent Territories: 18
Total FIFA Member Associations: 211

You might notice that not all of the 193 UN member states are included. That’s because several very small countries aren’t members, plus the UK is replaced by its four “constituent countries”, which aren’t UN members on their own.

Learn More: Which Countries Are (and Aren’t) Part of FIFA? (2014)

249 Country Codes in the ISO Standard List
Ever been filling out an internet form, and had to choose from a surprisingly long list of countries? You were probably looking at the international standard “country code” list, formally known as ISO 3166-1. Lots of companies and other organizations adopt this standard list instead of spending their own time compiling one. The standard also includes convenient two-letter codes for each country, like us for the United States, de for Germany, and jp for Japan, which you might recognize from web addresses specific to those countries.

This ISO standard is based on an official list kept by the UN….but then why on Earth are there 249 country codes? That’s way more than the total number of UN member and observer countries! Well, the standard list does leave out some breakaway states not recognized by the UN, but makes up for it by listing dependent territories separately from their parent countries. So there are country codes not just for actual countries, but also for nearly-independent states, overseas territories, uninhabited islands, and even Antarctica! This is important, because organizations might need an option for every place that any person can be located, and dependent territories often aren’t technically part of the countries they belong to.

UN Members: 193
UN Observer States: 2
States With Partial Recognition: 2
Inhabited Dependent Territories: 45
Uninhabited Territories: 6
Antarctica: 1
Total: 249

So there you have it! Next time someone tells you “There are 194 countries in the world,” remember that the real answer isn’t so simple!

June 11, 2017

Libya Control Map & Timeline – June 2017 (Subscription)

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Research by Djordje Djukic, with Evan Centanni. Map by onestopmap.com and Evan Centanni.

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The past month has seen major changes to control in Libya’s interior, as rival governments face off there and in around the capital city of Tripoli. Meanwhile, the so-called “Islamic State” (ISIS/ISIL) has reportedly re-emerged in rural areas near the coast.

See all this and more on the latest update to PolGeoNow’s concise, professional Libyan Civil War control map, which comes with a timeline of changes since our April 2017 Libya control map report.

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Exclusive report includes:

Up-to-date map of current territorial control in Libya, color-coded for the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), the rival Tobruk parliament and Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), and the so-called “Islamic State” (ISIS/ISIL). New colors have been added for the Tuareg and Toubou ethnic alliances that control much of the country’s far south.
Detailed indication of city-by-city control, including key towns and other locations important to current events.
Locations of recent fighting and military operations, including Tamenhint and Jufra airbases, Brak, Sukna, Bani Walid, and more.
Detailed timeline of important events and changes to territorial control since April 28, 2017, with links to all sources.

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June 5, 2017

“Islamic State” in the Philippines? Detailed Control Map & Timeline of the Marawi Conflict

Map of so-called Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) control in the Philippines, during the May-June 2017 crisis involving the Maute group and Abu Sayyaf takeover of Marawi Ciy, Lanao del Sur province, Mindanao. Updated to June 4, 2017, shows detailed control of Marawi by barangay. Includes map of area affected by martial law declared by President Rodrigo Duterte. Colorblind accessible.

Article by Evan Centanni

(Subscribers click here to view this article in the members area.)

Rebellion in the Southern Philippines

For the past week and a half, headlines have chronicled an alleged new front in the war against the so-called “Islamic State” (IS; formerly ISIS/ISIL). A recently-formed armed organization known as the Maute group (after the family name of the two brothers who lead it) has launched a rebellion in Marawi, capital of Lanao del Sur province of the southern Philippines, apparently allying with elements of the older Abu Sayyaf organization to spread the vision of IS into southeast Asia. Marawi is a historic center for Muslim culture in the Philippines, and the largest city in the country’s partially self-governed Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).

Map of territory in the Philippines and Malaysia claimed by the separatist Bangsamoro Republik, plus territorial control by the Moro National Liberation Front (MNFL) as part of the 2013 Zamboanga crisis.

MNLF rebels who seized another Mindanao city in 2013 were separatists, but not religious hardliners

The southern Philippines has a long tradition of rebellions led by members of the minority Moro ethnic group, whose main difference from the rest of Filipinos is that they’re Muslims rather than Christians. But different armed groups vary widely in their goals. Some, like the MNLF group that declared an independent “Bangsamoro Republik” in 2013, just want increased self-governance for the Moro people, without necessarily involving religion in government.

Others, like the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) – currently waiting for the Philippine government to approve a 2014 peace deal that would convert the ARMM into a more self-governed “Bangsamoro” region – are more religiously-oriented, but still support democracy.

Abu Sayyaf and the Maute group, on the other hand, are religious hardliners, who believe in the far-right ideologies of violent Salafi Muslim groups like Al Qaeda and IS. According to media in the Philippines, the Maute brothers call their organization “Dawlah Islamiyah” (Arabic for “Islamic State”), and have pledged allegiance to the leadership of the Islamic State organization in Iraq and Syria. Meanwhile, they appear to have been working closely with Isnilon Hapilon, a leader of Abu Sayyaf who IS claims as its top representative in the Philippines.

Martial Law in Mindanao

On the first day of the violence in Marawi, citing the attacks and alleged attempts at rebellion against the government of the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte declared martial law across the entire Mindanao island group (roughly the southern third of the country). The declaration allows for indefinite detention of suspects without trial, and will last for 60 days unless revoked or extended by the national legislature.

Country Name:
• Philippines (English)
• Pilipinas (Filipino)
Official Name:
• Republic of the Philippines (English)
• Republika ng Pilipinas (Filipino)
Capital: Manila

Former president Ferdinand Marcos controversially used martial law to maintain dictatorial powers across the Philippines for 8 years starting in 1972. However, the country’s current constitution, in addition to the time limits, also doesn’t allow for the courts or legislature to be overridden under martial law. This limited type of martial law declaration was also used by President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo for one week in 2009.

President Duterte himself grew up in the Mindanao region from a young age, and before his election as president served as longtime mayor of Davao, the largest city in Mindanao and second largest in the country after greater Manila. Some of Duterte’s ancestors were reportedly Muslims from the Marawi area.

Timeline of Maute Control

The following is a timeline of territorial control and other events related to the Marawi conflict. Sources are provided as in-line links. The accuracy and truthfulness of officially-available information has been called into question regarding these events, but PolGeoNow has done our best to consult a wide range of sources and provide as accurate a story as possible.

Note: The entire Philippines is divided into neighborhood/village-level administrative units known as “barangays”. Referencing these units is a useful way of tracking events on a very local scale, but because they’re very small, can change frequently, and aren’t well documented online, there’s often confusion over the exact locations and correct names of specific barangays. Because of this, references to barangays in the media and our timeline – as well as their status and locations on the above map – won’t always be 100% accurate.

November 24 – December 1, 2016
The Maute group seized control of the town of Butig, 50 km (30 mi) south of Marawi, until being driven out by the Philippine military after six days of fighting. The military estimated there were 61 Maute fighters killed in the episode and 12 injured, while 35 Philippine soldiers also sustained injuries.

…

May 23, 2017
Marawi City: Around 2pm at “the lower portion of the Mindanao State University Compound” in Barangay Basak Malutlut, clashes broke out between the Philippine military and fighters of the Maute group. The military had been attempting to arrest Isnilon Hapilon, a leader of the Abu Sayyaf armed group and reputed top representative of the so-called “Islamic State” (IS) in the Philippines.

By about 3pm, fighting broke out in the Caloocan neighborhood, near the Lanao del Sur provincial police command. According to early reports, during the afternoon Maute-affiliated fighters took over “Barangays Saber, Sarimanok, Mapandi, Amai Pakpak, the area near the provincial jail, [Basak] Malutlut, and Calookan [Caloocan]”. Later reports said the fighters had seized 11 barangays: Basak Malutlut, Bangon, Saber, Tuca, Bangolo, Naga, Moncado Colony, Caloocan, Marinaut, Mapandi, and Matampay.

A humanitarian organization reported that fighters raised a black flag, of the design used by the so-called “Islamic State” (IS; formerly ISIS/ISIL) and some Al Qaeda affiliates, at the Amai Pakpak Hospital. The hospital administration later denied that the facility had been taken over, while confirming it had been the site of a scuffle between Maute fighters and police.

Marawi City Jail, City Hall, the city’s main street, and two bridges were also reportedly occupied by the attackers, while St. Mary’s Cathedral was seized and its priest and 14 church workers taken hostage. Meanwhile, the city jail, a church, Ninoy Aquino School, and Dansalan College were set on fire. The fighters reportedly released 107 inmates from the city jail and neighboring Malabang District Jail. [Editor’s note: PolGeoNow was unable to confirm a map location for the Marawi City and Malabang District Jails, which appear to be different from the provincial jail.]

Residents said many of the fighters could not speak the local Maranao language, instead conversing in tongues native to the Sulu Islands, where Abu Sayyaf is known to operate. In addition, intelligence sources later estimated that up to 10 percent of pro-Maute combatants in Marawi were foreign fighters, mostly from Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore, but also including “at least one Pakistani, a Saudi, a Chechen, a Yemeni, an Indian, a Moroccan and one man with a Turkish passport.”

Thousands of Marawi residents fled the city to escape the violence, as ground troops in armored personnel carriers attempted to contain the Maute fighters, and airstrikes were conducted at the shore of Lake Lanao. Police reportedly closed down all entry and exit points to Iligan City, 40 km (25 mi) to the north.

At 10pm, Philippine Presdient Rodrigo Duterte declared martial law in the Mindano island group, cutting short a visit to Russia so he could return to the Philippines.

May 24, 2017
Fighting reportedly reached a pause, as the military held its ground while awaiting reinforcements. A humanitarian spokesperson from the regional government said the conflict-affected neighborhoods were “Barangays Basak Malutlut, Caloocan, Abubakar, and Bangolo”. [Editor’s note: There does not appear to be any barangay called “Abubakar” in Marawi.]

Marawi’s police chief and another police official were killed in confrontations, while government agencies bused fleeing civilians to three new evacuation centers in Iligan City, and the Maute group threatened to behead the priest of St. Mary’s Cathedral if the military didn’t pull out of the city. The military reported that 13 Maute fighters and 5 Philippine soldiers had been killed since the beginning of the incident. The city of 200,000 was reportedly “like a ghost town” after tens of thousands of residents fled for safety, though 800 were sheltering within Marawi at the Lanao del Sur provincial capitol building.

May 25, 2017
Army tanks and assault helicopters entered Marawi, while residents said the Maute fighters looted and burned civilian homes. A military spokesperson said that Amai Pakpak Hospital, Marawi City Hall, and Mindanao State University had been cleared of Maute fighters.

The same day, fighting was reported from Barangays Malimono, Gadungan, Bangolo, and Marinaut. The military said the heaviest fighting occurred around two bridges in Barangay Bangolo, while elsewhere in the city Maute fighters attacked the Camp Ranao army base and occupied the LASURECO electric company headquarters. Airstrikes were conducted in Barangays Gadungan, Basak Malutlut, and Bangon.

May 26, 2017
The military announced that the death toll in the Marawi conflict had increased to 31 Maute fighters and 11 Philippine soldiers, in addition to the two police officers killed on the 24th.

May 29, 2017
The government said it was “in full control of Barangays Matampay, Basak Malulut, Barrio Green, Bangon and Saduc, the peripheries of the Mindanao State University campus and the Amai Pakpak Hospital and the Matampay area.” Major fighting occurred in Marinaut and around the LASURECO compound. The military apparently prevailed at the latter location, rescuing several hostages, and also evacuated a number of civilians from Barangay Saber.

May 30, 2017
A week after the conflict began, the military said Maute group fighters were “still present” in nine barangays. Progress in retaking the rest of the city had been slowed by Maute snipers targeting soldiers from buildings under their control. Media quoted the death toll of the Marawi conflict at 20 “members of the security forces”, 61-64 Maute fighters, and 19-24 civilians, while the Red Cross estimated that 3,000 residents were still trapped in their homes. Meanwhile, the military admitted that Maute fighters had captured an armored personnel carrier – a type of tank.

A regional news report – dated June 2 but apparently referring to the situation as of May 30-31 – listed Mindanao State University, Matampay, Saber, and Basak Malutlut as “areas declared clear” by the military. Areas not yet “cleared” included “Banggolo, Raya Madaya I and II; Lilod Madaya, Dagodoban, Padian, Barrio Naga, Marinaut West and East; Caloocan, Pangarungan, and Moncado Colony”. [Editor’s note: “Pangarungan” seems to refer to the same area also known as Barangay Moncado Colony.] Barangays Banggolo, Raya Madaya I and II, and Marinaut were also reportedly inaccessible due to airstrike damage. Over 3,000 residents were estimated to still be trapped in their homes, even after the rescue of more than 2,300, who were brought to the provincial capitol.

May 31, 2017
According to eyewitness media accounts, the Mapandi and Bayabao bridges were still under Maute control after one week, with the group inferred to control much of the town center as well. Military accounts said Maute fighters controlled only 10% of the city, with 89 members of the group killed since the start of the conflict. One military source said the fighers were confined to just four barangays: Bangolo, Lilod Madaya, Raya Madaya I, and Raya Madaya II.

Hapilon and the two Maute brothers were believed to still be in Marawi. The Marawi City Jail and Malabang District jail were reported to still be under Maute control as well, with their staff trapped inside. The military’s fatality count for the conflict rose to 120 Maute fighters and 36 soldiers, including 10 killed accidentally by a government airstrike. The official count of civilian deaths remained at 19.

June 2, 2017
Ongoing military efforts were reportedly focused on Bangolo in Marawi’s downtown. Meanwhile, military forces reportedly eliminated a Maute sniper position in Mapandi, while airstrikes continued in the area. Delays in securing control of the city were attributed to Maute snipers and use of civilians as a human shields. A military spokesperson admitted that the government would not achieve its goal of gaining complete control over Marawi by June 2.

Meanwhile, IS claimed credit for an alleged attack on a casino in the Philippine capital city of Manila, which the Philippine government insisted was actually a robbery attempt by a lone gambler – an interpretation apparently supported by video of the events. The attacker fired a weapon multiple times, but reportedly didn’t shoot anyone (except eventually himself); however, 37 people died as an apparent result of fires he started.

June 3, 2017
Though military efforts were reportedly still focused on Barangay Bangolo, civilians were also said to still be trapped in the nearby Raya Madaya neighborhood. The Philippine government said it believed the fighters had prepared in advance for their takeover attempt, and may have received assistance from IS in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the military raised the official death toll to 120 Maute members, 38 government personnel, and 20 civilians, after a resident was allegedly shot by a Maute sniper while being evacuated. The government also raised its estimate of the total remaining Maute fighters to “200 to 250” in addition to the 120 already killed, after having estimated a total of just 100 the previous week.

June 4, 2017
A four-hour humanitarian ceasefire, arranged directly with one of the Maute brothers by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) rebel group, allowed 134 non-combatants to be evacuated from the heart of the fighting in Barangay Bangolo. The MILF, Mindanao’s most powerful rebel group, which is awaiting the completion of a peace deal with the government, has opposed the Maute takeover but not directed its forces to get involved militarily.

Meanwhile, President Duterte announced he had accepted an offer by Nur Misuari, leader of the MNLF rebel faction that took over another city in Mindanao in 2013, to send 2,000 fighters to help the government against the Maute group. The president publicly invited the communist New People’s Army (NPA), the country’s oldest active rebel group, to do the same.

Also on June 4, a humanitarian agency said over 220,000 people had fled the violence, of whom about 58,000 were staying in evacuation centers and 163,000 were living at the homes of family members. Meanwhile, a news agency released photos of the destruction caused by government airstrikes in downtown Marawi.

Following this story? To check for updates, view all Philippines articles on PolGeoNow!

Graphic of the flag of the Philippines is in the public domain (source).